Xi warned China invasion of Taiwan would be shambles

US upgrades Taiwan with newer Patriot missiles

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President Xi Jingping of China has been warned an invasion of Taiwan would be a “shambles” for his military and end in defeat with tens of thousands killed or taken as prisoners of war. A complex think tank war game showing a hypothetical attack on the island showed Taiwan would remain an “autonomous democracy” after the invasion although both sides – including Western allies – would endure “sobering” costs.

Taiwan’s military would be “unbroken” but left “severely degraded” by the conflict, the The Center for Strategic and International Studies, who conducted the simulation of a conflict in 2026, said.

The small island would be left to survive with a ruined economy without electricity or basic services, it added.

In a three to four week fight, the US would suffer blows defending Taiwan that damage the country’s global influence for years to come.

Chinese missiles would destroy US air bases and sink two US aircraft carriers, between 10 and 20 destroyers during the opening stages of the conflict.

Japanese bases would also be hit by missile strikes.

But the report concludes China would suffer the most: “Its navy would be ‘in shambles’ and its amphibious forces ‘broken’.”

The country is projected to lose 138 ships and 155 aircraft. And 10,000 soldiers will be killed while another 10,000 are taken prisoner of war.

Mark Cancian, senior advisor at the think tank said: “US officials warn that a Chinese invasion is a real possibility and imply that the US would become involved in such a conflict.

“The good news is that Chinese forces were unable to conquer the island, and Taiwan endured as an autonomous democracy. The challenges confronting a Chinese invasion are formidable. However, the costs were sobering.”

But Mr Cancian Taiwan must fight back and Japan must give its permission for the US to launch counterstrikes from its bases for simulation to play out in reality otherwise “the US intervention would not be enough to continue Taiwan’s autonomy.”

Mr Cancian also said the projected risks of the war suggest avoiding war is the best option. He said the war could lead to an “unstable peace” with a recurring conflict.

He added: “The terrifying possibility of nuclear escalation also looms over any war involving two nuclear powers.

Mr Cancian also recommends the United States and Taiwan should make several preparations, just incase conflict should occur.

He said: “The United States should harden bases, work with allies, particularly Japan, for additional basing options, continue to make its forces, more survivable and buy more long range missiles, particularly anti-ship missiles, because some inventories are critically low.

“The Taiwanese can adopt a porcupine strategy, deploy more mobile anti-ship missiles, build a fully manned and highly capable army, and spend less on expensive and vulnerable ships and aircraft.”

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